The chances are that a federal election is in the works. And the person who wants it this time is harper.
Notice his prominence in new reports lately? Lots of drama. lots of posturing. That doesn't happen by accident.
There's that front page photo of him sipping a coffee at Tim Horton's. There's the walkout at the UN - Canada taking a stand, bold rejection, moral authority. (Whether he was right or wrong has nothing to do with it. Politicians rarely take stands on the basis of right and wrong. They take stands that give them prominence and draw votes.)
Mr. Cannon is travelling ot Newfoundland to give a dressing down to Ghadafi. Well, I'll bet that has Ghadafi shaking in his boots. I'll bet is also buys Harper a lead spot in news casts across the country, and puts him on the side of the angels, taking a world lead in moral stances.
There is so much of this going on that it looks very much as though Harper is expecting an election. It's smart politics. He's positioning himself as a world figure standing for causes that can only bring him praise from the voters.
And, I would guess, he's expecting an electioin because this time he's the one who wants it. He'll never have a better chance for a majority because in Ignatieff, the liberals have the weakest and most incompetent leader that party has ever had. He proved that with his recent threat to bring down the government. It was stunning that he should do so without even attempting to show what the big issue was, or how he was different from Harper on any point of policy. Harper knows how to position himself, and he's doing it. But it's obvious that Ignatieff hasn't a clue.
Harper's only big weakness is Quebec. But he can't do anything about that anyway. And, besides, Ignatieff has pretty blown the liberals off in Quebec, too. So this is the best chance Harper will ever have.
Watch for more moral posturing. Watch for liberals getting very, very worried about Ignatieff.
© WonderCafe. All Rights Reserved
Brought to you by the people of The United Church of Canada
Opinions expressed on this site are not necessarily those of WonderCafe or The United Church of Canada

Comments
SLJudds
While I would welcome an
Posted on: 09/25/2009 09:26
While I would welcome an election under those circumstances, as Harper would expose himself as a liar and a hypocrite, I highly doubt it will happen.
Harper's advisors are just not that stupid. It would be a huge gift to the other parties.
graeme
I'm not sure it is a gift to
Posted on: 09/25/2009 11:44
I'm not sure it is a gift to the other parties. The Liberals have not done well in the polls under Ignatieff. And I would not be surprised if Harper has his own, more recent polls, showing a further Liberal decline. Ignatieff is a walking disaster.
The NDP has not been catching fire, either. The only party bobbing upward is the Bloc. But it's gains will be limited to Quebec and, at this point, will come only at the expense of the Liberals.
It's not a slam dunk, but this is probably Harper's best chance. I don't like it. But that's what the numbers say.
graeme
There's also a new factor.
Posted on: 09/26/2009 10:07
There's also a new factor. With the addition of seats for Ontario, Alberta, and BC, Quebec's importance in elections suffers a decline. The Conservatives lose it? So do the Liberals, probably. And it doesn't matter either way as it used to.
If I were Harper, I would be looking for an election.He'll never have a better chance. And I think that is exactly what Harper has decided.
If I were Ignatieff, I'd be looking for a meaning for the Liberal party, for a sense of prinicple. And that's exactly what he has not done. And it's because he doesn't have any sense of principle. All he understand is that his name is Ignatieff, and it's his turn to be prime minister and sign important papers and stuff.
SLJudds
Beshpin - I'm sure you see
Posted on: 09/27/2009 00:58
Beshpin - I'm sure you see yourself as wise and knowledgeable in politics and the world.
I have known several politicians. Some were dishonest - but far less that one would think. Many were good people trying to the right thing. Some, too, were crazy as bedbugs.
In politics, it is necessary to have a massive ego and an emotional hide like a rhino. If not, you will be torn to pieces.
There are five basic types of people in politics.
First is the patriot - those whose political activity come from a genuine love of country. These form the grassroots of most parties even through the sneers of wags in society. Few, however, are in charge.
Second is the entertainer. They love being in front of crowds. Many of them are in charge - but they are often led around by the other groups. They, however, are not amoral.
Third is the power hungry. They crave control and will go to any lengths to get it. Often these are the "Powers behind the throne" as their naked lust for power is too obvious to others.
Fourth is the greedy. They care not for power or morality. They only wish to line their pockets. These infect the middle levels of politics like cockroaches. however, government is steadily becoming less high profit and more high risk.
Fifth, and most dangerous is the ideologue or fanatic. They are the most ruthless and they will gleefully violate truth, honesty, and any ethics to achieve their ends. They are easily led and often exploited.
Now, few in politics are strictly one type or another. They are combinations of these types in varying levels.
Still, the vast majority of people in politics are decent folks who actually care about democracy and their country.
seeler
Somehow Graeme, I think we
Posted on: 09/27/2009 06:49
Somehow Graeme, I think we missed our chance in the last election. If the liberals had supported their leader and if the NDP had identified their true opponent, we would have defeated Harper. True we would have been left with a minority government but it would have been a Liberal government, supported and kept in check by the NDP.
I'm afraid I don't have much hope of things improving in the next election. I can't put my faith in any of the leaders.
graeme
St. Judd's experience of
Posted on: 09/27/2009 07:59
St. Judd's experience of politicians pretty much parallels mine.
revjohn
Maybe if we break out
Posted on: 09/27/2009 19:59
Maybe if we break out torches and pitchforks it will stay there.
Charles T
I wondered if he would do
Posted on: 09/28/2009 12:08
I wondered if he would do such a thing. It was what, a few weeks ago I think that the statement from some "anonymous liberal member" was leaked? This person was supposedly saying that Ignatieff was an idiot and had abosolutely nothing to go forward with and that the party all knew it.
This was either leaked by some member as stated, but why? Why would that person want to hurt their own party? I figure they either hoped it would wake Iggy up, or they were just sick of the whole thing, OR it was a political leak known about by those who were behind it. So who wouldn't have been behind it? Either the conservatives or the liberals. Maybe the Liberals want Harper to think they have nothing so that he calls the election and then they can tell the country, "look he did it, not us." or it was the Conservatives trying to put very plainly that the Liberals have nothing, and to see the country's response. Then they would know if they could win calling their own election.
Either way, it seemed to be more posturing, and for the purpose of having the Conservatives call the election, not the Liberals.
I would agree with Graeme that we are going to see more. I expect to see at least one more big thing to come out in order to give the Conservatives a "legitimate" reason for calling an election.
Free_thinker
"Fifth, and most dangerous is
Posted on: 09/28/2009 15:04
"Fifth, and most dangerous is the ideologue or fanatic. They are the most ruthless and they will gleefully violate truth, honesty, and any ethics to achieve their ends. They are easily led and often exploited."
Stephen Harper falls overwhelmingly in this category, and this makes him an exception among Canadian PM's. Out of all the Western democracies, Canada has perhaps been most immune to the siren song of ideological extremism. We've had plenty of alternative movements during the 20th century, but nothing like the revolutions and upheavals around questions of what the ideal government looks like that have plagued so much of Europe. I like to think that's a good thing - one of this country's great strengths. Harper wants to change all of that by leading a government that is driven by ideology above all else. He wants to replicate movement-conservatism and Thatcherism here in Canada, just as these fundamentalisms are losing their traction in America and the UK.
At least with someone who is power-hungry, consideration is given to political advantage, which means recognizing what the public actually wants. Harper is willing to do that, but only in the short-term, until he can gain a majority. Read Tom Flanagan and you see very clearly that the intention has always been a fundamental re-writing of Canadian society.
Charles T
Free_Thinker - can you think
Posted on: 09/28/2009 16:05
Free_Thinker - can you think of any Prime Minister, or leader of a major party that wouldn't fit under the description of #3 or #5? , and usually if they are #3 they act like #5 in order to get the support of their party members.
That reads almost like a Chinesse food order.
MorningCalm
Prediction: This coming
Posted on: 09/28/2009 16:56
Prediction: This coming election, for the first time ever, I will not vote Conservative. Just who I will vote for, I have no idea.
graeme
well, I'll agree that Harper
Posted on: 09/28/2009 19:27
well, I'll agree that Harper scares me as an ideologue. Ignatieff doesn't. He scares me because he's a kiss up who'll kiss up to anybody to get power. He has no ideology, If he had been born into Stalin's russia, he would have become a senior commissar, watching carefully over Stalin's health to time his move.
He's different from Harper, but equally frightening.
seeler
I just watched another Harper
Posted on: 09/28/2009 19:33
I just watched another Harper pre-election ad on TV. Something about how the economy is recovering. Makes me wonder why my friend's son is looking for work in California, and why my son isn't getting lots of job offers from here at home. And I presume that the taxpayers are paying for these ads because they are coming from "The Government of Canada".
graeme
this is the same authority
Posted on: 09/28/2009 20:17
this is the same authority who told us during the last election campaign that there was no economic crisis.
lastpointe
Seeler your friends son is
Posted on: 09/29/2009 05:45
Seeler your friends son is looking for work because employment is a lagging indicator of a recession.
Economic recovery doesn't mean there is no unemployment.
I assume from the liberal posturing in the news that they are going to try a nonconfidence motion.
I feel they are only doing this to force Layton, who is very low in the polls, to vote for the Government. It is an effort to make themselves look decisive and Layton look like he is caving. But i think it can be spun by the NDP that they are doing what a minority parliament is supposed to do, agree when you can, negotiate when you can, .......
It may work to make Layton look weak ( and with the Toronto Mayor dropping out he might even choose to try to be Mayor of the largest city rather than NDP leader with nothing to do) but I doubt it makes the liberals look strong.
To me it makes them look dumb. They have come forward with no insight or issue, just a "we want to be in charge" so "we need an election".
Not good enough.
I have been surprised by Ignatief actually. While i thought it bizaare that they crowned him king , I did actually expect more from him.
graeme
well, it's all but official.
Posted on: 09/29/2009 06:41
well, it's all but official. An op ed piece by Simpson in today's Globe says Harper is looking for an election. I thought all the signs were there a good week ago, and, from his point of view, it makes sense. what a mess!
seeler
lastpointe - I am not as
Posted on: 09/29/2009 08:10
lastpointe - I am not as knowledgable about politics as many people are. But I have seen, and I see, Harper looking for a majority. He forced an unwanted election last fall because he hoped for a majority. He knows that the people don't want another election, so I doesn't want to call one himself, but is trying his best to force a no-confidence vote so that he can blame the Liberals for bringing on an unwanted election. Meanwhile he is out campaigning at taxpayers expense, calling it a 'message from your government'.
What he should be doing is cooperating with the elected representatives of all the parties to bring about the best possible government for Canada, and forget about forcing another election and hopeing for a majority until this term is up.
He's had a couple of kicks at the can now. Its time to realize that the majority of Canadians do not support him.
Motheroffive
Aquaman wrote: Prediction:
Posted on: 09/29/2009 09:41
Prediction: This coming election, for the first time ever, I will not vote Conservative. Just who I will vote for, I have no idea.
Aquaman, in the other thread, you said that you and your wife are Permanent Residents. Will your citizenship ceremoney be happening soon enough for you both to vote in the next election?
Charles T
seeler wrote: lastpointe - I
Posted on: 09/29/2009 09:59
lastpointe - I am not as knowledgable about politics as many people are. But I have seen, and I see, Harper looking for a majority. He forced an unwanted election last fall because he hoped for a majority. He knows that the people don't want another election, so I doesn't want to call one himself, but is trying his best to force a no-confidence vote so that he can blame the Liberals for bringing on an unwanted election. Meanwhile he is out campaigning at taxpayers expense, calling it a 'message from your government'.
What he should be doing is cooperating with the elected representatives of all the parties to bring about the best possible government for Canada, and forget about forcing another election and hopeing for a majority until this term is up.
He's had a couple of kicks at the can now. Its time to realize that the majority of Canadians do not support him.
I know you obviously have a lot of hatred toward Harper and conservatives in general, but I really wonder if it blinds you too. Graeme is most definately not a conservative, but he seems to recognize where one party is usually not to blame over this stuff.
Did the conservatives really put something into the motion last year that the liberals could not compromise on? Just because the government put up something that was not what their party would have done does this mean they have to vote no-confidence? Layton even has even said in the past that he would vote no-confidence regardless of what the government put forward. So, what. They could put forward an entirely NDP system and he would vote against it?
Yes I think the Conservatives have done posturing in order to facilitate these things, but they are far from alone in it. They have dropped a lot of their original more right wing policies in order to get things done in a minority parliment, granted some of this is probably just to stay in power long enough to say, "we did this, and this and this," but would any of the other parties do anything different?
Really, do you think that the Liberals, NDP, or Bloc, were any better in all of this? and if so why? I really don't see where any of them have acted with any other motive that gaining and keeping power over the past few years. So, please show me where the others have done this and the conservatives have been the overarching enemy you seem to posit them as.
graeme
I don't think Harper is a
Posted on: 09/29/2009 11:20
I don't think Harper is a conservative at all. He represents an ideology which is actually based on nineteenth century liberalism. And he also represents a thrust for cheap politics as, for example, his idea that tougher jail sentences in tougher jails would mean less crime. (if it did, the US would now be as crime free as the garden of eden before the apple tree.)
Meanwhile, Harper is modifying his ideas - but not to make parliament work. He's done it because he has to if he's going to hold on to power. Just watch what happens if he gets a majority.
The liberals are , it is true, largely opportunists, the result of too many years in power. now, with ignatieff, they aren't even any good at being opportunists.
The NDP is almost certainly stronger on moral principle than either of those parties, though it has drifted some in search of power over the last thirty years or so.
I wish there was a conservative party in Canada. There are some fine conservative values. But the Harper conservatives don't even know what conservative means.
lastpointe
seeler wrote: lastpointe - I
Posted on: 09/30/2009 05:23
lastpointe - I am not as knowledgable about politics as many people are. But I have seen, and I see, Harper looking for a majority.
I don't follow politics that much either Seeler and I sure don't want to vote again. I don't ever seem to vote for anyone who gets elected.
Undoubtably Harper would like a majority, they all would. No one would ever campaign to have a minority or to lose. And right now Harper does have the most support. Does that make him want an election? I don't know.
I don't see the Government trying to force a confidence vote. Ignatief and his advisores had all summer to figure out their plan and they started the fall with this posturing of no confidence. Even before Parliament restarted, Ignatief was all over the news with his "no support " message. I couldn't figure out the timing myself. "no support" of what exactly, just a general plan???
They would only do that if they thought they would win. Have they misjudged? I think they have, the anti election backlash has been pretty strong. Ignatief looks weak over it. I had high hopes for him but have been disappointed in the lack of... well everything.
In reality, all ads you see, for everyone, are at tax payers expense. All the parties get money to operate so we support them all ( they get a certain dollar amount for each vote they get, so in that way, even if your person doesn't get elected, they at leasts get your bit of money towards their party. That alone is a good reason to vote and not spoil your ballot, at least the person you want to win will get some money for their party)
It seems to me that is what is happening now. The NDP have dropped their " we were elected to always vote no , regardless of why" retoric and so some compromise is being made. Things are rolling along and some improvments are being made. Not to everyone, for sure. My hubby is out of work with no prospects in the future either.
Unfortuantely, once you have more than two parties, it doesn't matter if the majority of Canadians don't want Harper. What only matters is who gets the most.
If Harper gets 38, sure it means that 62 voted for someone else,but so what. If the Libs get 30 and the NDP 16 and the Bloch 14 and the green 10 and the rhino 2 ...... It is still the largest number.
What I think happens here, in that the cafe, is that the cafe has a preponderance of NDP/green voters. That causes a feeling of popularity for those parties that is not reflective of reality that most Canadians vote for either the Conservative Party or the Liberal Party. To me they are for the most part pretty indistinguishable. It is why I hoped that Ignatief would be a valid choice.
I hope we don't have an election. There has been movement in the economy, the markets and some compromises are occuring. It is what should happen with all governments, not just minority ones so lets hope it keeps developing.
I think the Liberals made a mistake when they had a coronation instead of a convention for Ignatief. He didn't have to state his positions and get his party riled up behind him. He still hasn't.
graeme
I suspect last pointe's post
Posted on: 09/30/2009 07:42
I suspect last pointe's post is a pretty good reflection of Canadian feeling. But I fear we're going to get an election, anyway.
graeme
conservatives 41% and
Posted on: 10/05/2009 17:40
conservatives 41% and climbing. Liberals 28% and falling.