Hi Rev. Steven Davis,

I suspect the reason is the relative strength of St. Amand.  The first time McColeman and St. Amand faced off was in 2006.  Amand won a narrow victory (22, 077 to 21, 495).  In 2008 McColeman won (22, 628 to 17, 839).  The total votes cast dropped from 59, 753 in '06 to 53, 938 in '08 with only the Conservatives and Greens making any headway in votes cast.  The Liberals and NDP both lost significant support.  Had those nearly 6, 000 voters shown up St. Amand could very well have kept the seat.

Federally, since '93 Liberals have outpolled the Conservatives and the Reform (as well as the heir to both parties) by as high as 9, 000 votes and as low as 1, 000 votes.  McColeman and St. Amand are both fairly well respected so it is a good match-up.  Since this will be the rubber match between the two I suspect that if St. Amand does not prevail the Liberals will start looking for a new champion.  If McColeman doesn't prevail I suspect he would be back next time around.

Fresh blood or ideas would not likely be the message a new candidate would bring here.  Running scared would be the gut interpretation and that would damage the party's chance of electing a candidate.  Until one or the other is clearly defeated (6, 000+ votes in these parts) both will be around for a while.  Prior to 2004 (first federal election post Reform Conservative merger) political champions were typically one run wonders unless they won.  Since 2004 the main three parties seem to keep their stable stable.

Grace and peace to you.

John

 Screw you guys and your tiny, multiple ridings.  I am in the only riding in the NWT... The Western Arctic (which of course encompasses the entire NWT). 

Because we have a different form of government (consensus) there are several differences to elections.  You vote for individuals, not parties.  So EVERYONE runs as an independant.  They can be backed by, or be a member of x or y party, but only their names will appear on the ballot.  There will be no official mentioning of party affiliation on the ballot.  Because everyone runs as independants you can find problems such as former conservative MPs running on a conservative platform, against officially endorsed Conservative members (for example).

Anyways, our lack of say in federal politics is depressing.

On to the candidates.  Dennis Bevington is our current MP and he is NDP.  He will be running for re-election.  The Minister of Health Sandy Lee is running with the Conservative's blessing.  That is as far as I've heard so far.  I'll get back to you.

As-salaamu alaikum

-Omni

Living in Alberta a fence post running under the conservative name would have a 85+% chance of winning.  Well there was the exception--when the Reform party had not yet taken over the Conservative party.

LAst I heard the Liberals had not yet named a candidate but I ahve also been away since Monday so that may have chaned.

Cambridge, ON

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cambridge_(electoral_district)

Pre 1964 -- back & forth as Liberal / Conservative

1964-76 -- Max Saltsman -- NDP   (local businessman)

1979 -93  -- Chris Speyer / Pat Sobeski  -- Conservative

1993 -2004 -- Janko Perik - Liberal

2004 -- current -- Gary Goodyear -- Conservative (yeah, the science portfolio that doesn't believe in evolution hails from my hometown)

Last few elections:  Liberal & NDP split the vote.  Spend was HUGE by the PC compared to the liberal or NDP candidate.

Who is running

Goodyear again -- argh.

Liberal -- a new candidate, ran membership at the YMCA.  not sure what kind of backing.

NDP -- even less of a probable candidate...may help the Liberal candidate

Interest:  No signs up yet around the city, but....we have asked for one.

Population? We are the poor cousin of Waterloo & Kitchener, though better off than Brantford.  We are historically industrial, with a lot of closings over the years as we moved from shoes/textile to anything.  The largest employer now is Toyota. The city is continuing to grow and has a large commuter population to Toronto/Mississauga.

The riding I'm in, Victoria, has been in existence since British Columbia joined confederation. Since 1988 it's been held by either the Liberals or NDP (John Brewin, NDP 1988-93; David Anderson, Liberal 1993 - 2006; Denise Savoie, NDP 2006 - present) and I don't see that changing this time around. It should be an interesting race the incumbent, Denise Savoie, and the Liberal Challenger, Chris Causton. Chris Causton is the very popular mayor of Oak Bay - an affluent suburb of Victoria. Last time Denise Savoie won with 44% of the vote - this time I imagine it will be somewhat closer. I am hoping to get to an all candidates debate at some point during the campaign.

The Victoria riding encompasses all of the city of Victoria along with Oak Bay and part of Saanich. Economically, it's a real mix - Oak Bay is very affluent, Saanich and Victoria are mostly middle class - but there are lots of people who are not very well off. Within our riding you'll find a university and a community college. A lot of people in this area work either at one of those two schools or for the provincial government. There's also a high percentage of retired people and students (obviously).

Yeah, a bit of a shock to go from Jason Kenney's to Linda Duncan, just a bit of a shift there. 

I live in ( unfortuantely) the riding that had the (dis) honor of electing one of two reforms from Ontario.  She is now a conservative and is often not allowed  to speak by Harper because she says embrassing things.  Yet she may be reelected.  It was a liberal riding until the gun control issue brought out the the liberatarian streak in the people and that seems to still be there.  The is a strong army presence and she works it well.  She used the conservative media plan of giving federal checks with conservative signage on it ( you know the big check for photo opts)

She appeals to the narrow thinking that has arisen because of the loss of jobs ( you know those who are different get them) because of free trade.  Big on law and order when it is not a problem yet there is a sense of the world is dangerous because 'we are not doing well' - she appeals to the dark side of the fears created by a changing reality.

The liberals may have a chance but the NDP is out of  luck if it gets more than  10%.  The green gets about 5%.  If these two did not run the liberals might win. But here is a problem - since national money for a party depends on a % one might vote for either party to keep the money.

I am not sure why Ignatief is not liked... I understand why Harper isn't - Layton comes across as trustworthy.  May is a sweet nice christian.   I vote for the party not the leaders, and not for the candidate.  All I know, though, as usual it will not be for the conservatives.

Um.. welcome to Canada. That's the law. No party names or affiliations can be on the ballot. Only the name of the candidate.

An interesting note on something that caught my eye in a neighbouring riding. I live in London-North Centre but work in London-Fanshawe and since the beginning of the campaign, I've been noticing a lot of signs in that riding that feature a nice photo of a couple so prominently that I wasn't even sure which one was running or who for (due to the small size of the print around the pic). Finally got a close look while stopped at a red light last week and it's him who's running and he's ... Christian Heritage. Now, I'm not really in their target demographic but I'm quite impressed with this guy's campaign for two reasons:

- He's putting the focus squarely on himself with the photo of him and his wife. Most of the major party candidates just have their party colours and their name. The NDP and Liberal candidates in London-Fanshawe are pretty well known in London anyway (former is the incumbent and this is her third or fourth campaign in the riding, latter is a former municipal politician), but I wouldn't know the Tory from Adam.

- It's rare to see a "fringe" party put on this strong a presence this early in a campaign.

Not saying it would get me to vote for them, but it's heartening in a campaign that's very focussed on the big guys slagging each other to see a fringe party try to make it's presence felt.

Also, I wish the local Greens would take notice. They are all but invisible here in London this campaign.

Mendalla

 I live in the riding of Ottawa centre. It has a political culture and tradition very different than the rest of Ottawa.

Historically it is a Liberal riding. The conservatives last won it in the 70s. The NDP won it in 1984, when the Liberals collapsed nationally. However the Liberals were able to win it soundly in 88 and all through the ninities. beating formable NDP candidates. including people like Marion Dewar, a popular mayor.  However in a byelection called 8 years ago after naming the MP to the Senate, so that a key supporter of Turner could be elected to the House, Ed Broadbant won the riding based on his personel popularity and a rejection of the Liberals.  

The NDP than nominated Paul Dewar, (Marion's son) and he won the riding.   he has turned into a very popluar local MP, and is largely assured of being relected for the second time.  He really listens and takes risks for the community.

As an aside after he was nominated, I saw him in a Quiznos. I was fealing a little angry about the lack of action on AIDS in Africa.

So I approached him and I said. " look Paul, as i dramatically pulled three pills out of my pocket. I was to suppose to have died 10 years ago. Doctors had told me for years I was going to die, but i did not because they found a treatment, and I had access. Look three small pills and i am alive. Howevr I can not celebrate, because millions die every year still. all because they do not have three little pills. Please do something about.

Well I will let you would you know, but the last private members bill to be passed in Parliment before it was shut down, was a bill sponsered by Paul Dewar to enable canada to send drugs at costs to the developing world.

You just have to know you to ask and elect to get change 

Hi Rev. Steven Davis,

The riding of Haldimand-Norfolk just south of us (the riding in which I work) is represented by Conservative Diane Finley is once again seeing Bob Speller represent the Liberal Party.  Finley took the seat from Speller in 2004 after he had held it for 16 years.

There is still strong resentment against the Conservatives (particularly Finley) for their invisibility during the fracas in Caledonia and Finley's husband Doug (now a Senator) is one of the Conservative brass who was fingered in the election spending violations from the 2006.

Grace and peace to you.

John

Not to me Alex.  It would be les if we vcould remove party politics from the body altogether.

Given the current lay of the land I am of the opinion thaat an elected Senate would make things worse.  Certainly it could not then fulfill its responsibility to be a chamber of "sober second thought" --- not that it does a great job of that now, but maybe removing party politics and party hacks from the place would help.

I live in Stephen Harper's riding. So my vote against him feels pretty useless.

I seem to recall hearing somewhere that the number of votes a party receives has direct effect on the amount of funding they receive from the government. So while Stephen Harper may indeed win your riding, the party of the candidate you vote for (assuming this is true) will get more money - money that might help them defeat him the next time around.

Well. Let's see. Here in Hamilton East - Stoney Creek, the incumbent is Wayne Marston, NDP.

Our Conservative candidate, Brad Clark, decided that he could put a lawn sign in our front yard (without our permssion) just because we had one in the last election. I promptly removed it.  At this point, I am a card carrying member of the Concervative Party of Canada. Card bruning ceremony to take place this week. Pretty fed up with them.

Our Liberal candidate is Michelle Stockwell. So far, she is the only candidate to do some door to door campaigning. I really like her. I am also a big fan of Michael Ignatieff. I am swinging politically to the liberal side (are there cookies). I believe that, in general, they make much more sense. But I also like The Jack and the NPD's, who, I believe also make much more sense than the Conservatives.

Haven't heard a peep from Dave William Hart Dyke, our Grren Part candidate and have only received a mailer from Mr. Marston, NDP incumbent. Not to say that we won't get a visit, but as of now, Mrs. Stockwell seems to be on the ball.

Paul Szabo, who was voted the hardest working MP, has served my riding of Mississauga South since 1993.  He chaired the Mulroney/Schreiber ethics committee last year and has written books on issues such as domestic violence, child poverty and fetal alcohol syndrome.  He is easily accessible and generally just a really good guy.  I have voted for him in the past.  I cannot vote for him this time around as I will not in any way support Ignatieff, who I find to be creepy, arrogant and pompous.  Our household with four  eligible voters will be casting three votes for Paul Simas of the GREEN Party, and one, as yet, undecided.

Our riding is getting national news. Every time we heard on the radio Tony C was heading anywhere for a year, we knew it was cheques being handed out on the "tour de porc".

You wonder about that "infastructure" money when driving downtown Hunstville streets will cause you an auto repair bill, but that granite welcome sign an hour and a half away from Huntsville sure does look pretty.

I'm in the same riding as Tyson.  The sign posting may explain the front lawn of a widow living alone in my neighbourhood.  She has both a conservative and an NDP sign on her lawn.  She has removed neither.  Perhaps she is "undecided!"

Clark was a golden boy in the provincial Harris government in the 90's and has since held a seat as a councillor in municipal politics.  He is generally a very honest person and works hard although I have completely disagreed with some of his stances.  I also CANNOT vote for him because I loath Harper and how he has conducted himself as PM.

I am concerned that there are very few lawn signs, perhaps indicating voter apathy.  The riding has swung back and forth typically between Liberal and Conservative depending upon voter turnout.  However I would be pleased if the NDP candidate wins again and will likely vote that way myself...cms

I got my voters card today - and it is sending me to a school that does not exist - lol! It says Oak Bay East School but there is no such school - lol. The address is that of Oak Bay Secondary School, so I'm going with that.

My advice for voters - if any candidate has a chance of defeating Harper, forget your favourite party in this election and vote for that candidate.   If the winner in your riding is a foregone conclusion then vote for the party of your choice and give him or her the popular vote.  

I share your world DKS, although not your locale.

I suspect little change, but still I will vote.

LB - a small cry in the wilderness

And that's exactly why I'm Green. My own politics are a tad eclectic and the Greens seem to be a better match for that than the more traditional party lines of the big three.

Mendalla